Anna-Sophie Kurella

Research

Countering Polarization: The Borda count as a basis for proportional representation (ongoing)

Funded by the German Research Foundation DFG.

Duration: 2026-2029 (as planned)

This project explores a new approach to proportional representation (PR): a system based on the Borda count, a voting method in which voters rank all parties instead of selecting only one. Unlike traditional PR systems that rely solely on first-choice votes, Borda-based systems take full preference orderings into account. Social choice scholars often view the Borda method as one of the most robust democratic voting rules, since it avoids many of the paradoxes found in plurality systems and aligns closely with key fairness principles.

This matters because contemporary party systems are increasingly exposed to polarizing strategies that are frequently used by extremist parties. A Borda-inspired PR system has the potential to encourage moderation, reduce incentives for divisive campaigning, and still ensure meaningful representation for minority groups.

The project examines whether such a system can fulfill these expectations. It is organized into three components:

  1. Theory: A formal model of party competition under a Borda-PR system will identify whether this rule rewards moderation in policy positioning.
  2. Voter Behavior: Experimental studies will investigate how voters behave under Borda-PR, with a focus on strategic voting and the quality of substantive representation.
  3. Empirical Application: A version of Borda-PR adapted to Germany’s mixed-member system will be tested using data from a 2027 Lower Saxony state election district.

The project responds to urgent challenges created by rising polarization and increasingly fragmented party systems. By comparing the dynamics of established PR systems with those generated by a Borda-PR approach, it highlights a promising avenue for strengthening democratic resilience.

Although the project is primarily fundamental in nature, the findings are highly relevant for ongoing debates about electoral reform.

Current working papers:

  • Kurella, Anna-Sophie: Voting behavior under the Borda rule: a survey experiment in the aftermath of the German federal election 2025.
  • Barbaro, Salvatore and Anna-Sophie Kurella: On the Polarization Premium for radical parties in PR electoral systems. Preprint available here

Issue Evolution in Multiparty Systems (finished)

Funded by the German Research Foundation, DFG.

Duration: 2021-2025

This project investigated issue evolution, the process through which new policy issues rise to prominence. The central question was why some parties are electorally succsessful in pushing new issues, while others fail. Examples range from the rise of radical right parties through immigration to the earlier success of green parties on environmental topics.

The research combined formal modeling and empirical analysis. Findings show that parties gain from emphasizing a secondary issue when they hold a clear but not extreme position on it and remain moderate on the main political divide. If their stance is too similar to competitors or too far from voter preferences, higher salience can backfire. Evidence from European cases supports this pattern for Green and radical right parties.

A further contribution is a new model in which parties choose both policy positions and issue emphasis. Simulations reveal that attention to secondary issues depends on public opinion and non-policy strengths such as credibility. Mainstream parties with strong reputations often amplify issues first raised by challengers, helping explain current trends in Europe.

Working papers and research articles emerging from this project:

  • Kurella, Anna-Sophie and Lovisa Mundschenk (2025). Optimal party strategies on niche issues: A computational approach to multiparty competition for position and salience. Working paper.
  • Kurella, Anna-Sophie and Milena Rapp (2026). The role of issue salience and competitive advantages in spatial models of political competition. The Journal of Politics, online first. https://doi.org/10.1086/734255
  • Kurella, Anna-Sophie and Milena Rapp (2024). Combining voter preferences with party position estimates from different sources for studying voting behavior and representation. Electoral Studies, 87: 102734. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102734